Influence of climate change on the potential global distribution of Erythrina crista-galli L. (Fabaceae) outside its natural limits

Abstract

Exotic species are potentially dangerous for the conservation of native biota because they escape
predators, competitors and pathogens that usually are not displaced with the species to the areas in
which they begin to colonize. The modeling of the potential distribution of occurrence of a native
species can be an important tool for the recognition of environments colonized by an exotic, introduced
and naturalized species. Erythrina crista-galli L. (Fabaceae) is a pioneer species, native of Brazil,
Uruguay, Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay. Due to its ecological characteristics, it has the capacity to
expand its distribution to new available. This work aimed to identify the potential areas of distribution
of Erythrina crista-galli L. outside South America, evaluating the favorable areas of 22,000 years BP
until today as a way to verify the tendency of expansion or reduction of these territorial spaces outside
its natural limits. The results indicate that the algorithm used in modeling the distribution for the species
is highly efficient in pointing out areas in which the naturalization of the species could occur, increasing
its distribution to new intercontinental frontiers. In these areas E. crista-galli could, due to its ecological
characteristics, impact these local ecosystems. The study also indicates what would be the trend of
dynamics of these potential areas in relation to the climatic changes that have occurred since the last
glacial maximum.